The Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics came to a close on 22 February with a superb finale. There were standout performances across skiing and ice hockey. In this article we run through the highlights of the Games, the key medal races and, above all, what bettors learned from these Games for the future.
The medal races
The skiing events delivered some of the Games' biggest stories. Relay golds and individual podium finishes changed hands, and several nations reached finals few had predicted. The medal table tightened toward the end, and with events spread across Italian time the decisive moments often landed in the evening.
From a betting standpoint, several nations' total medal counts were forecast conservatively, so the "over" markets paid out well for those who read the form better than the bookmakers' algorithm. This is a good example of why close attention to season form and individual disciplines often beats the headline price.
Ice hockey – the road to the medals
The ice hockey tournament was tight from start to finish. The medal games were decided by fine margins, and the favourites did not always have it their own way. The participation of NHL players brought the nations closer together in quality – the most important change compared with the 2018 Pyeongchang Games, where the NHL was not involved.
At the level of individual games, the medal contenders were consistent – many games were decided within a 1–2 goal margin. That made the over/under 5.5 goals market – and the "under" picks – particularly profitable as the Games went on.
Skiing – the surprises of the Games
The skiing events produced some of the biggest surprises of the Games. Several relay golds were unexpected – pre-race odds sat at 4.00–5.00 against clear favourites such as Norway. Underdog podium finishes reinforced the picture that the established skiing nations no longer have it all their own way. In ski jumping the outsiders came close to the podium, but again the pre-event odds were high.
The home nation is famously the hardest to bet – emotion and probability get mixed up. Markets often price in the "home-country overbet" phenomenon, where local punters back their own team beyond what form warrants. That creates value on the other side (e.g. a favourite's odds drift up relative to true strength). At Milano-Cortina, however, several outsiders met and exceeded expectations, so this time the market inaccuracy favoured the contrarian backers.
What does a bettor learn from the Olympics?
- Olympic odds are often more generous than at the World Championships – a smaller audience and less volume
- Smaller nations often surprise the bigger favourites – Norway, Germany, the USA
- Study the team line-up carefully – professionals don't always feature, and illness absences can scramble the cards
- At the Winter Olympics, snow conditions and the weather affect results – follow the forecast on a day-by-day basis
- Medal-table bets (top 5 medal nation) offer good value before the Games begin
- An NHL break changes ice hockey betting completely – player-level analysis is critical
Betting markets at the Olympics
Medal-count bet: an over/under-type bet on a country's total medal count. A popular market – but it's worth checking whether the line is set too low or too high.
Individual medal bet: will a given competitor win a medal (any colour)? The odds here are often 2.00–4.00 for top athletes, and offer better value than a pure gold-medal bet.
Gold-medal bet: higher odds, but considerably riskier. Only the clear favourites are worth playing.
Top medal nation: which country wins the most medals at the Games? Odds in the 1.20–8.00 range depending on the country.
Tips for the next major championships
The next skiing World Championships will be held in February 2027. From there, the lead-up to the 2030 Olympics (France) begins. A good bettor starts following years before the Games – the individual disciplines' World Cup results are an excellent predictor of major-championship success. For instance, the top 5 skiers from the 2025–26 World Cup have around a 70% chance of a medal at the next major championships.
Summary
Milano-Cortina 2026 delivered drama across the disciplines and an instructive experience for bettors. The key lesson: Olympic odds are famously slow to react – close knowledge of the field and the season form of individual athletes pay off. The next Winter Olympics will be held in 2030 in the French Alps and the Pyrenees, and it's worth starting to follow now. The longer-term futures markets (e.g. medal nation 2030) typically open 1–2 years before the Games, and that's when the best value windows appear.